Scientists issue a dire warning that a devastating disease is sweeping through West African cacao trees, posing a serious threat to global chocolate supply. It’s time to start amassing those candy bars while you still have the chance!
Benito Chen-Charpentier, a mathematics professor at the University of Texas at Arlington and the author of a sobering study published in the journal PLOS One, emphasized the gravity of the situation: “This virus poses a genuine danger to the worldwide chocolate supply.”
Known as the cacao swollen shoot virus disease, it is transmitted by various species of mealybugs that prey on cocoa plants.
Once the plant is infected, it can manifest various symptoms, such as stem and root swelling, the emergence of red veins on young leaves, and the cocoa pod’s deformation and reduction in size.
According to the study, scientists attribute the disease’s spread to factors such as globalization, climate change, agricultural intensification, and decreased resilience in production systems.
Impact on West Africa’s Cocoa Industry
“Ghana has lost more than 254 million cacao trees in recent years,” lamented mathematician Benito Chen-Charpentier.
In Ghana, the disease is estimated to have resulted in 15% to 20% harvest losses. Ghana ranks as the second-largest cocoa producer globally, following the neighboring Ivory Coast. These two nations collectively account for over half of the world’s chocolate production.
Chen-Charpentier expressed deep concern over Ghana’s recent loss of more than 254 million cocoa trees, a staggering number that underscores the severity of the situation.
Addressing this crisis has been an immense struggle. As the scientist explained, the resilience of mealybugs to pesticides has forced farmers to resort to strategies like eliminating infected plants, cultivating trees resistant to the disease, and even administering CSSVD vaccines to crops.
However, these vaccines come at a high cost, imposing a financial strain on low-income farmers. They also reduce cocoa yields, ultimately undermining their intended benefits.
Global Chocolate Supply: Innovative Solutions and Mathematical Models
Fortunately, Chen-Charpentier and his team have introduced an innovative approach to tackle this barrier by leveraging mathematical analysis to determine the optimal spacing between vaccinated trees, effectively halting the transmission of the virus by preventing mealybugs from moving between plants.
Cacao swollen shoot virus disease is spread by mealybugs that feed on the plant.
The disease is causing farm-aggedon among West African chocolate growers.
“The movement of mealybugs encompasses various methods, such as traversing from canopy to canopy, hitching rides with ants, or being transported by the wind,” elucidated the mathematician.
A ripe cacao pod
“Our objective was to develop a model tailored for cocoa growers, enabling them to determine the optimal distance between vaccinated and unvaccinated trees. This ensures the virus’s containment while maintaining cost-effectiveness for small-scale farmers.”
Using these methods, researchers developed models that enable farmers to establish a defensive ring of vaccinated cocoa trees around unvaccinated trees, similar to elephants making a circle to protect their young.
While still in their early stages, these innovative models promise to assist farmers in safeguarding their crops and boosting their harvest, potentially achieving two goals at once.
This method may also help prevent this popular food from becoming extinct.
“This is good for the farmer’s bottom line, as well as our global chocolate addiction,” said Chen-Charpentier.
Unfortunately, CSSVD isn’t the only threat to the world cocoa trade.
Chocolate manufacturers in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have ceased operations or decreased processing capacities due to a lack of funds to purchase beans. As a result, cocoa prices have more than doubled over the last year, surpassing multiple records.
Reference
Global chocolate supply under ‘real threat’ from rapidly spreading virus: expert [Internet]. Accessed on May 02,2024. Available at: https://nypost.com/2024/04/24/lifestyle/global-chocolate-supply-under-real-threat-from-virus-expert/
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